$574M in Baby Prop C reserves sit unused while families 151-200% AMI receive zero subsidies. Explore the data and policy scenarios.
Data: CA R&R Network • SFUSD • DEC • SF Examiner Nov 2025
📊 Current State: 2025
2025 Current2017 Peak Reference
SF Children 0-5
44,556
Total population
Peak: 52,222 (2017)
Licensed Capacity
30,496
Operational spaces
Peak: 31,713 (2023)
DEC Enrolled
10,400
Subsidized programs
23.3% of 0-5 pop
DEC Budget FY26
$337M
77% to Early Learning
Waitlist
738
Nov 2025
Capacity Change
-1,217
2023→2025 net loss
💰 ELFA Subsidy Tiers (Early Learning Family Assistance)
≤110% AMI
FREE
Full tuition credit
111-150% AMI
50% Credit
Half tuition covered
151-200% AMI
$0
NO subsidies despite Baby Prop C
>200% AMI
Private Pay
~$3,771/mo infant
🚨 Baby Prop C: The $574M Question
In 2018, SF voters passed Baby Prop C to expand subsidies to families earning up to 200% AMI (~$207,000 for family of 4). Seven years later, that promise remains unfulfilled.
$574M
Reserves accumulated
151-200%
AMI families excluded
$781M
Invested since 2021
"There's no excuse. We have to move quickly." — Norman Yee, former Board President & Baby Prop C co-author
🏢 Licensed Centers (426)
Infant Center (0-2)
7,762
Dedicated infant licenses
Day Care Center
15,117
Mixed ages 0-5*
School Age (5-17)
2,005
Peak: 5,760 (2017)
Single Licensed
1,751
Age range unclear*
Operational Center Capacity
25,684
(26,635 licensed - 951 pending)
🏠 Family Child Care (910 homes)
Large FCC (280)
3,870
Up to 14 children
Small FCC (630)
5,040
Up to 8 children
Est. Infant Capacity
~2,300
Based on licensing*
Change from 2023
-39 homes
+162 capacity
CA FCC Licensing Rules (infant limits):
• Small FCC: Max 4 infants OR 3 in mixed-age group
• Large FCC: Max 4 infants (12 total) OR 3 infants (14 total if criteria met)
• Infant = under 24 months
Total FCC Capacity
8,910
👶 Child Population (0-5): 2017-2025
PEAK
2017
52,222
2019
51,884
-0.6%
2021
48,713
-6.1%
2023
46,654
-4.2%
2025
44,556
-14.7% from peak
🎓 TK Expansion: 2020-2025
2020-21
504
3.0 req/seat
2021-22
476
3.2 req/seat
2022-23
723
+52%
4.3 req/seat
2023-24
1,056
+46%
5.0 req/seat
2024-25
1,994
+89%
5.9 GE / 7.5 Lang
+296% growth since 2020 • 98.2% utilization (1,959/1,994)
🎯 DEC 5-Year Enrollment Plan
FY26
10,400
Current
FY27
11,000
+600
FY28
12,000
+1,000
FY29
12,500
+500
The Math Problem: DEC needs +700 spaces/year • Building +300/year • Lost -1,217 (2023-25) System contracting faster than DEC can expand
Explore Policy Scenarios
Each choice creates ripple effects. Who benefits? Who loses?
Scenario A: Expand to 200% AMI
"Fulfill the promise of Baby Prop C"
Focus: Release $574M reserves, extend subsidies to 151-200% AMI
✓ Middle-class families finally get relief
✓ Providers gain paying families
? How many families in 151-200% AMI?
Scenario B: TK Expansion First
"Kindergarten readiness starts at age 4"
Focus: Expand SFUSD TK capacity rapidly
✓ More 4-year-olds get free TK
✗ FCCs lose revenue, closures follow
? OST capacity for TK families
Scenario C: Build from Birth
"Invest in the foundation years (0-3)"
Focus: Expand infant/toddler capacity, stabilize FCCs